Statistical Science

Assessment of Point Process Models for Earthquake Forecasting

Andrew Bray and Frederic Paik Schoenberg

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Models for forecasting earthquakes are currently tested prospectively in well-organized testing centers, using data collected after the models and their parameters are completely specified. The extent to which these models agree with the data is typically assessed using a variety of numerical tests, which unfortunately have low power and may be misleading for model comparison purposes. Promising alternatives exist, especially residual methods such as super-thinning and Voronoi residuals. This article reviews some of these tests and residual methods for determining the goodness of fit of earthquake forecasting models.

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Statist. Sci., Volume 28, Number 4 (2013), 510-520.

First available in Project Euclid: 3 December 2013

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Earthquakes model assessment point process residual analysis spatial–temporal statistics super-thinning


Bray, Andrew; Schoenberg, Frederic Paik. Assessment of Point Process Models for Earthquake Forecasting. Statist. Sci. 28 (2013), no. 4, 510--520. doi:10.1214/13-STS440.

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