Statistical Science
- Statist. Sci.
- Volume 8, Number 3 (1993), 219-247.
Bayesian Analysis in Expert Systems
David J. Spiegelhalter, A. Philip Dawid, Steffen L. Lauritzen, and Robert G. Cowell
Abstract
We review recent developments in applying Bayesian probabilistic and statistical ideas to expert systems. Using a real, moderately complex, medical example we illustrate how qualitative and quantitative knowledge can be represented within a directed graphical model, generally known as a belief network in this context. Exact probabilistic inference on individual cases is possible using a general propagation procedure. When data on a series of cases are available, Bayesian statistical techniques can be used for updating the original subjective quantitative inputs, and we present a set of diagnostics for identifying conflicts between the data and the prior specification. A model comparison procedure is explored, and a number of links made with mainstream statistical methods. Details are given on the use of Dirichlet prior distributions for learning about parameters and the process of transforming the original graphical model to a junction tree as the basis for efficient computation.
Article information
Source
Statist. Sci. Volume 8, Number 3 (1993), 219-247.
Dates
First available in Project Euclid: 19 April 2007
Permanent link to this document
https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1177010888
Digital Object Identifier
doi:10.1214/ss/1177010888
Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet)
MR1243594
Zentralblatt MATH identifier
0955.62523
JSTOR
links.jstor.org
Keywords
Graphical models subjective probability conditional independence local computation triangulation junction tree unsupervised learning Dirichlet distribution Bayes factors prequential analysis prediction monitors
Citation
Spiegelhalter, David J.; Dawid, A. Philip; Lauritzen, Steffen L.; Cowell, Robert G. Bayesian Analysis in Expert Systems. Statist. Sci. 8 (1993), no. 3, 219--247. doi:10.1214/ss/1177010888. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1177010888.
See also
- See Comment: A. P. Dempster. [Bayesian Analysis in Expert Systems]: Comment: Assessing the Science Behind Graphical Modelling Techniques. Statist. Sci., Volume 8, Number 3 (1993), 247--250.Project Euclid: euclid.ss/1177010889
- See Comment: Clark Glymour, Peter Spirtes. [Bayesian Analysis in Expert Systems]: Comment: Conditional Independence and Causal Inference. Statist. Sci., Volume 8, Number 3 (1993), 250--257.Project Euclid: euclid.ss/1177010890
- See Comment: Joe R. Hill. [Bayesian Analysis in Expert Systems]: Comment. Statist. Sci., Volume 8, Number 3 (1993), 258--261.Project Euclid: euclid.ss/1177010891
- See Comment: David Madigan. [Bayesian Analysis in Expert Systems]: Comment: What's Next?. Statist. Sci., Volume 8, Number 3 (1993), 261--263.Project Euclid: euclid.ss/1177010892
- See Comment: Sharon-Lise Normand. [Bayesian Analysis in Expert Systems]: Comment. Statist. Sci., Volume 8, Number 3 (1993), 263--265.Project Euclid: euclid.ss/1177010893
- See Comment: Judea Pearl. [Bayesian Analysis in Expert Systems]: Comment: Graphical Models, Causality and Intervention. Statist. Sci., Volume 8, Number 3 (1993), 266--269.Project Euclid: euclid.ss/1177010894
- See Comment: Michael E. Sobel. [Bayesian Analysis in Expert Systems]: Comment. Statist. Sci., Volume 8, Number 3 (1993), 269--273.Project Euclid: euclid.ss/1177010895
- See Comment: Joe Whittaker. [Bayesian Analysis in Expert Systems]: Comment. Statist. Sci., Volume 8, Number 3 (1993), 273--276.Project Euclid: euclid.ss/1177010896
- See Comment: D. R. Cox, Nanny Wermuth. [Bayesian Analysis in Expert Systems]: Rejoinder. Statist. Sci., Volume 8, Number 3 (1993), 276--277.Project Euclid: euclid.ss/1177010897
- See Comment: David J. Spiegelhalter, A. Philip Dawid, Steffen L. Lauritzen, Robert G. Cowell. [Bayesian Analysis in Expert Systems]: Rejoinder. Statist. Sci., Volume 8, Number 3 (1993), 277--283.Project Euclid: euclid.ss/1177010898
