Probability, Causality and the Empirical World: A Bayes–de Finetti–Popper– Borel Synthesis

Abstract

This article expounds a philosophical approach to Probability and Causality: a synthesis of the personalist Bayesian views of de Finetti and Popper’s falsificationist programme. A falsification method for probabilistic or causal theories, based on “Borel criteria,” is described. It is argued that this minimalist approach, free of any distracting metaphysical inputs, provides the essential support required for the conduct and advance of Science.