Journal of Applied Probability

The size of a major epidemic of a vector-borne disease

Daryl J. Daley and Randall J. Swift


Based on a simple model due to Dietz, it is shown that the size of a major epidemic of a vector-borne disease with basic reproduction ratio R0>1 is dominated by the size of a standard SIR (susceptible--infected--removed) epidemic with direct host-to-host transmission of disease and the same R0. Further bounds and numerical illustrations are provided, broadly spanning situations where the size of the epidemic is short of infecting almost all those susceptible. The total size is moderately sensitive to changes in the population parameters that contribute to R0, so that the fluctuating behaviour in `annual' epidemics is not surprising.

Article information

J. Appl. Probab., Volume 48A (2011), 235-247.

First available in Project Euclid: 18 October 2011

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Digital Object Identifier

Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet)

Zentralblatt MATH identifier

Primary: 92D30: Epidemiology
Secondary: 62P10: Applications to biology and medical sciences

Epidemic dengue basic reproduction ratio epidemic total size branching process deterministic epidemic model seasonal infection


Daley, Daryl J.; Swift, Randall J. The size of a major epidemic of a vector-borne disease. J. Appl. Probab. 48A (2011), 235--247. doi:10.1239/jap/1318940468.

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