Table of contents, International Statistical Review, vol. 73, no. 2 (2005)

The Vital Role of Statistical Science in Assuring National Prosperity; Authors: N.I. Fisher, J.J. Lee

Scientific Program; Authors:

International Finance: Pushing the Statistical Envelope to Meet the Challenges of Globalization; Authors: Carol S. Carson

Why are Statistics Pre-eminent in the Efficient Operation of Financial Markets?; Authors: Dennis Trewin

Discussion of the papers by Carol S. Carson and Denis Trewin; Authors: Discussant: Jef L. Teugels

Discussion of the papers by Carol S. Carson and Denis Trewin; Authors: Discussant: Paul Van den Bergh

Statistics in Business and Industry: Implementation; Authors: Bovas Abraham

The Industrial Statistics Divide: Are Statisticians Really Relevant to Business and Industry?; Authors: Nicholas I. Fisher

Discussion of the papers by Bovas Abraham and Nicholas Fisher; Authors: Discussant: Sung H. Park

Discussion of the papers by Bovas Abraham and Nicholas Fisher; Authors: Discussant: Jayant Deshpande

Official Statistics, Globalization and World Democracy---A Challenge?; Authors: Carlo Malaguerra

The Role of NSOs in Assuring National Prosperity: A Case Study of Korea; Authors: Jong Nam Oh

Discussion of the papers by Carlo Malaguerra and Jong Nam Oh; Authors: Pilar Martin-Guzman

Discussion of the papers by Carlo Malaguerra and Jong Nam Oh; Authors: Discussant: Klaus Trutzel

Quality and Relevance in the First Statistics Course; Authors: David S. Moore

Research into Statistics Education as a Discipline; Authors: Maria-Gabriella Ottaviani

Improving Statistical Literacy in Schools in Australia; Authors: Dennis Trewin

Education is Everybody's Responsibility; Authors: Chris Wild

Statistical Training to Break the Vicious Cycle of Statistical Under-development; Authors: Ben Kiregyera

Learning from Data: Unifying Statistics and Computer Science; Authors: William S. Cleveland

Statistics and the Wealth of Nations; Authors: Stephen M. Stigler

Discussion of the papers by William S. Cleveland and Stephen M. Stigler; Authors: Discussant: Moon Y. Huh

Discussion of the papers by William S. Cleveland and Stephen M. Stigler; Authors: Discussant: Jae Chang Lee

Environmental Statistics: Current and Future; Authors: Abdel H. El-Shaarawi, Jef Teugels

Discussion of the paper "Environmental Statistics: Current and Future" by A.H. El-Shaarawi and J. Teugels; Authors: Discussant: Dennis Trewin

Discussion of the paper "Environmental Statistics: Current and Future" by A.H. El-Shaarawi and J. Teugels; Authors: Discussant: Donald A. Dawson

On Measuring the Quality of Survey Estimates; Authors: J.N.K. Rao

Survey as a Source of Statistics and Factors Affecting the Quality of Survey Statistics; Authors: Frederick W.H. Ho

Discussion of the papers by J.N.K. Rao and Frederick W.H. Ho; Authors: Discussant: L. Biggeri

Discussion of the papers by J.N.K. Rao and Frederick W.H. Ho; Authors: Discussant: Graham Kalton

Rejoinder; Authors: Frederick W.H. Ho

Roles of Statistics in the Life Sciences; Authors: Niels Keiding

Statistics for Studies of Human Welfare; Authors: Nanny Wermuth

Discussion of the papers by Niels Keiding and Nanny Wermuth; Authors: Sylvia Richardson

Discussion of the papers by Niels Keiding and Nanny Wermuth; Authors: C. Hirotsu

Public Awareness, Professionalism and Professional Accreditation; International Collaboration; Authors: Nicholas I. Fisher

The Professional Statistician; Authors: Niels Keiding

Panel on Public Awareness, Professionalism and Professional Accreditation; International Collaboration; Authors: Stephen M. Stigler

Internal Cohesion within ISI; Authors: Jef L. Teugels

The Statistical Profession in China; Authors: Yuan Wei

Editorial board, International Statistical Review, vol. 73, no. 2 (2005)

E. Seneta (School Math. & Statist., Univ. Sydney, Australia), Joint Editor

J. van Sinderen (Statistics Netherlands, Voorburg), Joint Editor

A.M. Manninen (City of Helsinki, Urban Facts, Finland)., Retiring Editor

Ann Daniels (ISI, Voorburg, The Netherlands)., Executive Editor

R. Acx (National Bank of Belgium, Brussels), Associate Editor

T. Alanko (Statistics Finland), Associate Editor

R. Gill (Univ. Utrecht, The Netherlands),, Associate Editor

P. Guttorp (Univ. Washington, Seattle, USA), Associate Editor

W. Lutz (Internat. Inst. Appl. Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria),, Associate Editor

N. Singpurwalla (George Washington Univ.,Washington, USA),, Associate Editor

I. Stamhuis (Free Univ., Amsterdam, The Netherlands),, Associate Editor

P. Verdier (INSEE, Paris, France),, Associate Editor

N. Weber (School Math. & Statist., Univ. Sydney, Australia),, Associate Editor

E. Wegman (George Mason Univ., Fairfax, USA),, Associate Editor

C. Wild (Univ. Auckland, New Zealand)., Associate Editor

We live in an information and technology age, an age in which national economic prosperity depends crucially on the creation and management of information and on scientific and technological advances. At the same time, there is an increasing realization of the need to manage the impact of our habitation on our environment, so that we will bequeath to our children and our children's children a world that can still be enjoyed.

Central to all of these processes is data, its acquisition, analysis, interpretation and presentation and, of course, the Science that provides these things: Statistics. Yet the subject does not receive the recognition it needs, either as a vital part of making progress in government, business and industry, or as a subject worthy of study both for its own fascination and because of the rich variety of career paths it offers. The purpose of this conference was to bring these issues into focus: to highlight

1. the current and emerging needs for Statistics in advancing science, technology and environmental management;

2. what Statistics and statisticians have to offer in response; and

3. current international efforts to raise public awareness of the need for professionalism in Statistics, and to attract more people into Statistics as a career.

The speakers and discussants were members of the ISI Council, who had been able to assemble in Korea through considerable organisational effort on the part of ISI Vice-President Jae Chang Lee, and the generous assistance of the Korean Statistical Society and the Korea National Statistical Office, supported by the Korean Federation of Science and Technology Societies, Korea Science and Engineering Foundation, the Statistical Research Center for Complex Systems, the Bank of Korea, Chung Chung Nam Do, and the Korea Gas Corporation. A few Council members were not able to attend, and so other leading statistical scientists were invited in their stead.

The scientific program

This paper treats three key areas where statisticians are pushing the envelope to meet the challenges of providing the basis for sound analysis and thus for sound policy in pursuit of assuring prosperity and preventing financial crises. In one area, the challenge is to provide comprehensive and timely data on foreign direct investment. In another area, the challenge is similar-to provide comprehensive and timely data on public debt. Moreover, a whole new area of statistics, dealing with the health of the financial sector, is being developed in recognition that one country's financial health or sickness affects its neighbors and many others in a world of complex global ties.

Efficient financial markets require accurate and trusted statistical information. Otherwise they will rely on anecdotes, rumour and possibly information that is deliberately distributed to distort markets. This will lead to markets being volatile and/or inefficient.

In this paper, I will focus on what the ABS does to provide accurate, trusted information. It complements the work the IMF has been promoting for the last six years through its Special Data Dissemination Standard (SSDS).

Carson treats three key areas from the world of finance where she sees major challenges for statisticians. They are:- the collection of comprehensive and timely data dealing with foreign direct investments; - the collection of comprehensive and timely data on public debt; and - the construction of financial soundness indicators of the financial sector. Any of these three challenges can be looked at from a variety of viewpoints: per commercial sector, per country, per geographical region and on an international level. Depending on this level, there is a vast set of organizations with interests in these issues, such as Eurostat, UNCTAD, the World Bank, etc. It is rather natural that the IMF considers itself as an umbrella organisation for dealing with these topics.

The paper by Dennis Trewin focuses on the role played by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in providing accurate and qualitative information that is crucial for financial markets such as consumer and producer prices, capital expenditure, labor force and especially housing price indices. He puts major emphasis on quality requirements, concretized in six elements: Relevance, Coherence, Timeliness, Interpretability, Accessibility and Accuracy. Trewin's approach relies heavily on his personal experience within the Australian Bureau of Statistics, but his views could and should be applicable to any other national or international statistical service.

Discussion of the papers by Carol S. Carson and Denis Trewin

There are many statistical tools available to be utilized for general business improvement and industrial problem solving. However, there is a wide gap between the tools available and those that are actually used in business and industrial organizations. Thus it is important for statisticians to direct serious attention to bridging this gap if statistics is to be relevant in business and industry. In this paper we look at some ideas for implementing statistical methods in business and industry.

O wad some Power the giftie gie us

To see oursels as ithers see us!

It wad frae mony a blunder free us,

An' foolish notion: ...

- Robert Burns, ''To a Louse''.

The stated purpose of this conference contains the provocative assertion that

''[Statistics] does not receive the recognition it needs ... as a vital part of making progress in ... business and industry ...''

I agree. I believe that there is a significant divide between senior management in business and industry ( Them), and the statisticians ( Us) who work on business and industrial problems: in a sense-to borrow from George Bernard Shaw-two groups divided by lack of a common language. A lot of their words aren't in our vocabulary, and a lot of our words aren't in theirs.

Such is not the case in many other major domains of statistical practice-Government, Insurance, Medicine to name but three. Why is this so and what can we do about it in Business and Industry? This paper seeks to explore these questions, and to argue that their resolution will involve a sustained commitment by the Statistics profession to areas such as statistical education, public awareness, and promoting professionalism in the practice of Statistics. However, the most important commitment might need to be that the Statistics profession take Robert Burns to heart.

Discussion of the papers by Bovas Abraham and Nicholas Fisher

I agree with the author (Abraham) of the first paper that Statistics has roles to play in Business and Industry at all the three levels described by him. The two questions that we as statisticians must answer are: (i) what are the appropriate statistical concepts and tools that are relevant at these three levels? and (ii) what is the best way of transferring these concepts and tools from the statistics community to the business and industry community? We shall briefly consider both questions for each of the three levels.

Official statistics is facing new challenges, both quantitatively and qualitatively. This requires, among other things, further input of statistical methods. The interaction with statistical research becomes crucial. Due to globalization, international organisations have to play a major role in the development of official statistics. The ISI should also play an important role in seeking to achieve a comprehensive approach to statistical science.

As changes in the socio-economic environment become more rapid, so the role of statistics in society becomes more important. At the same time, the role of a national statistical office (hereafter NSO) as a provider of official statistics attracts increasing interest because the function of an NSO in a country assuredly depends on changes in the economic and social surroundings in pursuit of national prosperity.

In this paper, the strong relationship between the social and economic development of a country and the development of a national statistical office will be explicated using the example of Korea, which has experienced dynamic take-off in both economic and social sectors during the last 40 years. The progress of the Korean NSO will be studied in three time periods by looking at the socio-economic changes in each period, and how the NSO responded. In addition, as the Global Age emerged in the late 1990s, the Korean NSO started to encounter new demands at a time of limited resources and a worsening statistical environment. In light of this, several current issues and corresponding strategies for NSOs will be suggested.

Discussion of the papers by Carlo Malaguerra and Jong Nam Oh

Discussion of the papers by Carlo Malaguerra and Jong Nam Oh

When Sir David Cox was asked what advice he would offer the head of a new statistics department, he said (Cox, 2004), ''first the importance of aiming to make the first course in statistics that students receive of especially high quality and relevance.'' This paper suggests some aspects of quality and relevance in a first course for general students. One of its themes is that statisticians collectively fail to give the first university course the attention and resources that its importance warrants.

This paper explores reasons why research into statistics education can be seen as a discipline in its own right.

We live in the information age. Statistical thinking is a life skill that all Australian children should have. The Statistical Society of Australia (SSAI) and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) have been working on a strategy to ensure Australian school children acquire a sufficient understanding and appreciation of how data can be acquired and used so they can make informed judgements in their daily lives, as children and then as adults. There is another motive for our work in this area. Australia is facing a shortage in the supply of statisticians. We are also anticipating that by improved teaching of statistics in schools, some of those children with stronger quantitative skills will become more interested in studying statistics at universities, and possibly pursuing a career as a statistician.

What I am presenting in this short paper is the ''schools'' component of a proposed Australian Statistical Education System, developed mostly by Nick Fisher on behalf of the SSAI.

A further reason for our interest is that statistics is currently taught in a fragmented fashion in Australian schools, typically by mathematical teachers with little or no understanding of statistics.

Statistics education should be a vital concern of anyone who cares about the future of statistics or statisticians, or who employs statisticians. Who should be educated and for what purposes? There is statistics education for those who will become professional statisticians, for those in other areas or professions who will use statistics fairly seriously, and statistics education to provide general life skills and enable an educated citizenry to participate in societal debates which involve arguments based upon data. Every section of ISI has vital interests in at least one of these areas.

Statistics education provides a training ground, a recruiting ground and a selling ground. It is to the advantage of us all if more of the best and brightest come into statistics education systems and leave it better educated, with better developed thinking skills, and a greater appreciation for the power of statistics. Better and better-educated people have a greater impact, both practical and intellectual, and increase the demand for the perceived sources of their success. But statistics is not just for an elite. Society at large will benefit if a broad cross-section of students emerge statistically literate and with an appreciation for the power of statistics and the desirability of decisions being made on the basis of solid data. An introduction to some of the issues involved can be gained from Wild (1994), Moore (1998), Wild & Pfannkuch (1999), Gal (2002), and Scheaffer (2002).

Developing countries trapped in a vicious cycle of statistical under-development have poor statistics and this has led to lack of demand for statistics as well as causing extreme difficulties in meeting user requirements. A case is made for statistical training to help break the said vicious cycle and so improve the flow and use of good official statistics.

Research in the data-oriented areas of computer science is contributing a new wave of theory and tools for learning from data. Some of the research areas complement those in statistics and others overlap. While the research topics of the two fields are not the same, the goals of the research are identical-to enhance theory, methods, models, and systems for the study of data. Unification-close collaboration in research, in teaching, and in applications-would greatly enhance new developments in learning from data.

The relationship of statistics and national prosperity is not a simple causal one, but some historical examples suggest a persistent association. A number of examples are considered, from the political arithmetic of the seventeenth century to the quality assurance methods of the 1950s, and a few speculative conclusions are offered.

Discussion of the papers by William S. Cleveland and Stephen M. Stigler

Discussion of the papers by William S. Cleveland and Stephen M. Stigler

Since 1900, statistics has prospered and established for itself a central place in science and technology, as can be seen from the wide application of its methods to almost all facets of life. The primary concern of statistics is to develop a logical and efficient system for information acquisition and analysis that is geared towards broad applications. Such a system has its roots and extensions in case studies from many scientific disciplines and in the collaboration between statisticians and other scientists. During the past three decades statisticians have become actively involved in the development and use of quantitative methods to understand and solve environmental problems. These activities are commonly called Environmetrics. In this paper we review the main features of current Environmetrics research and outreach activities. The paper is structured around typical examples drawn mainly from water quality and climate change to illustrate the type of problems involved, the statistical approaches used to address them, and the new statistical methods required for their solution. In addition we shall also briefly describe efforts made at the international level to link the statisticians working in the field together and with environmental scientists.

Discussion of the paper "Environmental Statistics: Current and Future" by A.H. El-Shaarawi and J. Teugels

Discussion of the paper "Environmental Statistics: Current and Future" by A.H. El-Shaarawi and J. Teugels

The quality of survey estimates is directly affected by survey errors that include sampling errors due to selecting a sample rather than the whole population, and non-sampling errors arising from data collection and processing procedures. The latter include frame error, measurement error and non-response. This paper addresses design issues related to total survey error and its components. Methods for handling frame problems and non-response are also presented.

Survey-taking, which normally involves sampling, has become a major data collection vehicle along with other means of obtaining raw data such as administrative systems and systems of special returns. This paper discusses the major aspects that should be addressed in conducting sample surveys. The proper treatment of these aspects is essential in ensuring production of quality statistics.

Discussion of the papers by J.N.K. Rao and Frederick W.H. Ho

The two papers in this session provide excellent, and complementary, overviews of current issues in survey statistics. Between them, the papers have a very broad coverage. For this discussion, I have chosen to select a few topics to emphasize.

The two discussants of the paper, Biggeri and Kalton, offer useful views that serve to stimulate further deliberation on the subject of survey quality.

Quantitative methodologies have always been central in the life sciences, and some of these belong to the general area of statistics. Other methods of data analysis have their part to play, and it is of ongoing importance for the field of statistics to adapt to these developments.

Besides the role of statistical methods in generating new knowledge, there are also regulatory uses of statistics, particularly in drug registration and in environmental standard setting. These dual roles of statistical methods should not be confused.

Statistical data from official sources and elsewhere play important roles in the life sciences, and often necessitate very careful adherence to confidentiality. The historical role of the ISI towards life sciences has been modulated by the existence of other international organizations in the area.

Developments in the recent past have substantially increased our ability to measure, compute, and communicate. We take the view that a corresponding improved understanding of processes in the life sciences will come about only through more intensive studies of properties of statistical methods and algorithms and transparent, open source computing environments.

A brief discussion of some of the challenges facing Biostatistics will be given.

Problems of clinical trials associated with human beings are discussed. They are characterized by very inhomogeneous and limited numbers of samples, and by periods of observation too short to allow efficacy and safety to be evaluated. Avoiding human error associated with subjective measures and ensuring the generalizability of the result of a limited trial to the true target population are crucial. The regulatory science is therefore an important factor in making appropriate decisions and gaining maximal benefit from insufficient information.

I welcome discussion of these issues in an international forum. In my view, the Statistics discipline can only make a ''Great Leap Forward'' when it starts taking them seriously. The ISI has an opportunity to play a leadership role, which is part of its purpose. My comments are informed by the experience of the Statistical Society of Australia (SSAI) in introducing optional Professional Accreditation for its members, an outcome of a `grass roots' movement in the Australian statistical community in the mid-1990s.

Any statistician needs to combine deduction and induction: strong systematic thinking (often based on non-trivial mathematics) together with an open-minded ability to listen and adapt. Both cerebral hemispheres are in play for the professional statistician. This makes clear definitions elusive and inhibits any formal teaching of how to be a good consultant. But we can distinguish a strong statistician from a weak one when we see them, can we not? And should we formalize this?

The three topics we discuss on this panel seem to me largely unrelated and of very different degrees of importance to the ISI. In the spirit of generating discussion I will state a provocative view of them.

Here a few thoughts in connection with the proposed panel discussion. Following the suggested key points that need to be addressed I'll single out the topic of international collaboration. More specifically, I would like to focus on the role to be played by ISI. I will even restrict my attention to scientific matters.

Here a few thoughts in connection with the proposed panel discussion. Following the suggested key points that need to be addressed I'll single out the topic of international collaboration. More specifically, I would like to focus on the role to be played by ISI. I will even restrict my attention to scientific matters.