Electronic Journal of Statistics
- Electron. J. Statist.
- Volume 6 (2012), 354-381.
The Bernstein-Von-Mises theorem under misspecification
We prove that the posterior distribution of a parameter in misspecified LAN parametric models can be approximated by a random normal distribution. We derive from this that Bayesian credible sets are not valid confidence sets if the model is misspecified. We obtain the result under conditions that are comparable to those in the well-specified situation: uniform testability against fixed alternatives and sufficient prior mass in neighbourhoods of the point of convergence. The rate of convergence is considered in detail, with special attention for the existence and construction of suitable test sequences. We also give a lemma to exclude testable model subsets which implies a misspecified version of Schwartz’ consistency theorem, establishing weak convergence of the posterior to a measure degenerate at the point at minimal Kullback-Leibler divergence with respect to the true distribution.
Electron. J. Statist., Volume 6 (2012), 354-381.
First available in Project Euclid: 19 March 2012
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Kleijn, B.J.K.; van der Vaart, A.W. The Bernstein-Von-Mises theorem under misspecification. Electron. J. Statist. 6 (2012), 354--381. doi:10.1214/12-EJS675. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ejs/1332162333