Bayesian Analysis

A Bayes Linear Approach to Weight-of-Evidence Risk Assessment for Skin Allergy

John Paul Gosling, Andy Hart, Helen Owen, Michael Davies, Jin Li, and Cameron MacKay

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We introduce a strategy for quantifying and synthesising uncertainty about elements of a risk assessment using Bayes linear methods. We view the population of subjective belief structures and the use of Bayes linear adjustments as a flexible and transparent tool for risk assessors who want to quantify their uncertainty about hazard based on disparate sources of information. For motivation, we use an application of the strategy to human skin sensitisation risk assessment where there are many competing sources of information available.

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Bayesian Anal. Volume 8, Number 1 (2013), 169-186.

First available in Project Euclid: 4 March 2013

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Bayes linear kinematics Bayes linear methods risk assessment skin sensitisation subjective judgement weight-of-evidence


Gosling, John Paul; Hart, Andy; Owen, Helen; Davies, Michael; Li, Jin; MacKay, Cameron. A Bayes Linear Approach to Weight-of-Evidence Risk Assessment for Skin Allergy. Bayesian Anal. 8 (2013), no. 1, 169--186. doi:10.1214/13-BA807.

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