The Annals of Statistics

Sequential Nonparametric Age Replacement Policies

Edward W. Frees and David Ruppert

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Abstract

Under an age replacement policy, a stochastically failing unit is replaced at failure or after being in service for $t$ units of time, whichever comes first. An important problem is the estimation of $\phi^\ast,$ the optimal replacement time when the form of the failure distribution is unknown. Here, $\phi^\ast$ is optimal in the sense that it is the replacement time that achieves the smallest long-run expected cost. It is shown that substantial cost savings can be effected by estimating $\phi^\ast$ sequentially. The sequential methodology employed here is stochastic approximation (SA). When suitably standardized, convergence in distribution of the SA estimator to $\phi^\ast$ is established. This gives precise information about the rate of convergence. A sequential methodology introduced by Bather (1977) has roughly the same aims as ours, but it is not of the SA type. Rates of convergence apparently have not been established for Bather's procedure.

Article information

Source
Ann. Statist., Volume 13, Number 2 (1985), 650-662.

Dates
First available in Project Euclid: 12 April 2007

Permanent link to this document
https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aos/1176349545

Digital Object Identifier
doi:10.1214/aos/1176349545

Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet)
MR790563

Zentralblatt MATH identifier
0583.62088

JSTOR
links.jstor.org

Subjects
Primary: 90B25: Reliability, availability, maintenance, inspection [See also 60K10, 62N05]
Secondary: 62L20: Stochastic approximation 62L12: Sequential estimation

Keywords
Age replacement policy stochastic approximation adaptive control kernel estimation

Citation

Frees, Edward W.; Ruppert, David. Sequential Nonparametric Age Replacement Policies. Ann. Statist. 13 (1985), no. 2, 650--662. doi:10.1214/aos/1176349545. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aos/1176349545


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