Annals of Probability
- Ann. Probab.
- Volume 33, Number 6 (2005), 2402-2462.
The spread of a rumor or infection in a moving population
Harry Kesten and Vladas Sidoravicius
Abstract
We consider the following interacting particle system: There is a “gas” of particles, each of which performs a continuous-time simple random walk on ℤd, with jump rate DA. These particles are called A-particles and move independently of each other. They are regarded as individuals who are ignorant of a rumor or are healthy. We assume that we start the system with NA(x,0−) A-particles at x, and that the NA(x,0−),x∈ℤd, are i.i.d., mean-μA Poisson random variables. In addition, there are B-particles which perform continuous-time simple random walks with jump rate DB. We start with a finite number of B-particles in the system at time 0. B-particles are interpreted as individuals who have heard a certain rumor or who are infected. The B-particles move independently of each other. The only interaction is that when a B-particle and an A-particle coincide, the latter instantaneously turns into a B-particle.
We investigate how fast the rumor, or infection, spreads. Specifically, if B̃(t):={x∈ℤd: a B-particle visits x during [0,t]} and B(t)=B̃(t)+[−1/2,1/2]d, then we investigate the asymptotic behavior of B(t). Our principal result states that if DA=DB (so that the A- and B-particles perform the same random walk), then there exist constants 0<Ci<∞ such that almost surely $\mathcal{C}(C_{2}t)\subset B(t)\subset \mathcal{C}(C_{1}t)$ for all large t, where $\mathcal{C}(r)=[-r,r]^{d}$. In a further paper we shall use the results presented here to prove a full “shape theorem,” saying that t−1B(t) converges almost surely to a nonrandom set B0, with the origin as an interior point, so that the true growth rate for B(t) is linear in t.
If DA≠DB, then we can only prove the upper bound $B(t)\subset \mathcal{C}(C_{1}t)$ eventually.
Article information
Source
Ann. Probab., Volume 33, Number 6 (2005), 2402-2462.
Dates
First available in Project Euclid: 7 December 2005
Permanent link to this document
https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aop/1133965862
Digital Object Identifier
doi:10.1214/009117905000000413
Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet)
MR2184100
Zentralblatt MATH identifier
1111.60074
Subjects
Primary: 60K35: Interacting random processes; statistical mechanics type models; percolation theory [See also 82B43, 82C43]
Secondary: 60J15
Keywords
Spread of infection random walks interacting particle system large deviations for density of Poisson system of random walks
Citation
Kesten, Harry; Sidoravicius, Vladas. The spread of a rumor or infection in a moving population. Ann. Probab. 33 (2005), no. 6, 2402--2462. doi:10.1214/009117905000000413. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aop/1133965862