The Annals of Applied Statistics
- Ann. Appl. Stat.
- Volume 9, Number 3 (2015), 1459-1483.
A Bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game
The $p$-beauty contest is a multi-player number guessing game that is widely used to study strategic behavior. Using new data from a specially-designed web experiment, we examine the evidence in favor of a popular class of behavioral economic models called $k$-step thinking models. After fitting a custom Bayesian spline model to the experimental data, we estimate that the proportion of players who could be using a $k$-step thinking strategy is approximately 25%.
Ann. Appl. Stat. Volume 9, Number 3 (2015), 1459-1483.
Received: September 2014
Revised: April 2015
First available in Project Euclid: 2 November 2015
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Hahn, P. Richard; Goswami, Indranil; Mela, Carl F. A Bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game. Ann. Appl. Stat. 9 (2015), no. 3, 1459--1483. doi:10.1214/15-AOAS830. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1446488747
- Supplement to “A Bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game”. The supplement contains computational details and a sensitivity analysis based on model residuals.