The Annals of Applied Statistics

Probabilistic wind speed forecasting on a grid based on ensemble model output statistics

Michael Scheuerer and David Möller

Full-text: Open access

Abstract

Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed are important for a wide range of applications, ranging from operational decision making in connection with wind power generation to storm warnings, ship routing and aviation. We present a statistical method that provides locally calibrated, probabilistic wind speed forecasts at any desired place within the forecast domain based on the output of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Three approaches for wind speed post-processing are proposed, which use either truncated normal, gamma or truncated logistic distributions to make probabilistic predictions about future observations conditional on the forecasts of an ensemble prediction system (EPS). In order to provide probabilistic forecasts on a grid, predictive distributions that were calibrated with local wind speed observations need to be interpolated. We study several interpolation schemes that combine geostatistical methods with local information on annual mean wind speeds, and evaluate the proposed methodology with surface wind speed forecasts over Germany from the COSMO-DE (Consortium for Small-scale Modelling) ensemble prediction system.

Article information

Source
Ann. Appl. Stat., Volume 9, Number 3 (2015), 1328-1349.

Dates
Received: February 2014
Revised: May 2015
First available in Project Euclid: 2 November 2015

Permanent link to this document
https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1446488741

Digital Object Identifier
doi:10.1214/15-AOAS843

Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet)
MR3418725

Zentralblatt MATH identifier
06525988

Keywords
Continuous ranked probability score density forecast ensemble prediction system numerical weather prediction Gaussian process

Citation

Scheuerer, Michael; Möller, David. Probabilistic wind speed forecasting on a grid based on ensemble model output statistics. Ann. Appl. Stat. 9 (2015), no. 3, 1328--1349. doi:10.1214/15-AOAS843. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1446488741


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