The Annals of Applied Statistics

Building a model for scoring 20 or more runs in a baseball game

Michael R. Huber and Rodney X. Sturdivant

Full-text: Open access

Abstract

How often can we expect a Major League Baseball team to score at least 20 runs in a single game? Considered a rare event in baseball, the outcome of scoring at least 20 runs in a game has occurred 224 times during regular season games since 1901 in the American and National Leagues. Each outcome is modeled as a Poisson process; the time of occurrence of one of these events does not affect the next future occurrence. Using various distributions, probabilities of events are generated, goodness-of-fit tests are conducted, and predictions of future events are offered. The statistical package R is employed for analysis.

Article information

Source
Ann. Appl. Stat., Volume 4, Number 2 (2010), 791-804.

Dates
First available in Project Euclid: 3 August 2010

Permanent link to this document
https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1280842140

Digital Object Identifier
doi:10.1214/09-AOAS301

Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet)
MR2758421

Zentralblatt MATH identifier
1194.62134

Keywords
Exponential distribution Poisson process memoryless property rare baseball events goodness-of-fit test

Citation

Huber, Michael R.; Sturdivant, Rodney X. Building a model for scoring 20 or more runs in a baseball game. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4 (2010), no. 2, 791--804. doi:10.1214/09-AOAS301. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1280842140


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References

  • Huber, M. and Glen, A. (2007). Modeling rare baseball events—Are they memoryless? Journal of Statistics Education 15.
  • D’Agostino, R. and Stephens, M. (1986). Goodness-of-Fit Techniques. Dekker, New York.