African Journal of Applied Statistics

Survivor rates of new entrants into an undergraduate degree programme under clearance uncertainty

Virtue U. EKHOSUEHI and Francis O OYEGUE

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Considering the clearance exercise in a Nigerian university setting, this study attempts to answer the question of the following sort: ‘ What is the survivor rate of candidates offered (provisional) admission into a course of study in the face of clearance uncertainty?’ We represent the problem as a system of differential equations within the framework of a network model with constant risk and then solve it using the Laplace transform. Rather than relying on steady-states fractional flow rates, we provide a transient solution to the problem. The survivor function for each entry level derived for the problem sheds some light on situations where a decision is to be made on two (or more) preferred courses and thus evades possible trauma in the application process.


Cette étude prend place dans la problématique de l'admission des étudiants dans les universités nigériannes. Elle se propose de répondre aux questions semblables à celle-ci : quel est le taux de survie (final) des candidats provisoirement admis à un programme dans une situation d'admission finale incertaine? Nous modélisons ce problème grâce à un système d'équations différentielles dans le cadre d'un modèle de réseau à risque constant. La transformation de Laplace est notre outil pour résoudre le problème théorique.

Article information

Afr. J. Appl. Stat., Volume 3, Number 1 (2016), 59-67.

First available in Project Euclid: 16 May 2019

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Digital Object Identifier

Primary: 97K80: Applied statistics 97M40: Operations research, economics

admission clearance Laplace transform survivor function transient solution


EKHOSUEHI, Virtue U.; OYEGUE, Francis O. Survivor rates of new entrants into an undergraduate degree programme under clearance uncertainty. Afr. J. Appl. Stat. 3 (2016), no. 1, 59--67. doi:10.16929/ajas/2016.57.201.

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