Statistical Science

How to Confuse with Statistics or: The Use and Misuse of Conditional Probabilities

Walter Krämer and Gerd Gigerenzer

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This article shows by various examples how consumers of statistical information may be confused when this information is presented in terms of conditional probabilities. It also shows how this confusion helps others to lie with statistics, and it suggests both confusion and lies can be exposed by using alternative modes of conveying statistical information.

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Statist. Sci., Volume 20, Number 3 (2005), 223-230.

First available in Project Euclid: 24 August 2005

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Conditional probabilities natural frequencies heuristical reasoning


Krämer, Walter; Gigerenzer, Gerd. How to Confuse with Statistics or: The Use and Misuse of Conditional Probabilities. Statist. Sci. 20 (2005), no. 3, 223--230. doi:10.1214/088342305000000296.

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