Statistical Science

The Probability Approach to the Treatment of Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems

Dennis V. Lindley

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Abstract

Arguments are adduced to support the claim that the only satisfactory description of uncertainty is probability. Probability is described both mathematically and interpretatively as a degree of belief. The axiomatic basis and the use of scoring rules in developing coherence are discussed. A challenge is made that anything that can be done by alternative methods for handling uncertainty can be done better by probability. This is demonstrated by some examples using fuzzy logic and belief functions. The paper concludes with a forensic example illustrating the power of probability ideas.

Article information

Source
Statist. Sci. Volume 2, Number 1 (1987), 17-24.

Dates
First available in Project Euclid: 19 April 2007

Permanent link to this document
http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1177013427

JSTOR
links.jstor.org

Digital Object Identifier
doi:10.1214/ss/1177013427

Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet)
MR896257

Zentralblatt MATH identifier
0955.68507

Citation

Lindley, Dennis V. The Probability Approach to the Treatment of Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems. Statist. Sci. 2 (1987), no. 1, 17--24. doi:10.1214/ss/1177013427. http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1177013427.


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