The number lotteries that are in abundance today derive from a lottery run in Genoa in the seventeenth century. The origins of the Genoese lottery are traced, and the earliest known probability calculations on it are given. What is probably the first American connection to the Genoese lottery is also given.

On May 4, 1990, the Students' Seminar Series of the Department of Statistics at the University of Connecticut organized a "Research Panel Discussion." The students' committee consisting of Tumulesh Solanky (Chair), Tai-Ming Lee and Saibal Chattopadhyay had invited Professors Peter Kempthorne, Pranab K. Sen and Shelemyahu Zacks to serve as guest panelists. Professor Nitis Mukhopadhyay served as the moderator. The informal discussion touched upon many interesting aspects of statistical research and education. The varied opinions and comments of these expert panelists were undoubtedly most informative to the audience present that day, and it is hoped that such comments will also prove to be useful in the future for the general audience. What follows is a slightly edited version of the proceedings of that lively panel discussion.

In 1988, the President's Council of the IMS created the New Researcher's Committee (NRC) to determine the needs of new researchers (NRs) and means by which the IMS can help meet those needs. The NRC submitted its report to the 1991 IMS Council during the 1990 summer meetings. This paper summarizes the report and material from a guide for NRs being prepared by the NRC. The NRC soon realized that a number of factors work in concert to influence the research environment. These include the opportunities for publication and speaking at professional meetings, funding, the work environment, interactions with colleagues and the social and political climate. As well, NRs can help promote their own research careers if they are aware of the opportunities that exist. Finally, the first few working years can be greatly influenced by the degree to which the graduate program prepared the NR for all aspects of a statistical career. This report covers the role of the IMS in its peer review and publication policies and its sponsorship of professional meetings. It also discusses the role of the IMS as an advocate for NRs in the political process, including funding, policies regarding dissertation format and family policy in the workplace. Means are suggested by which NRs can help themselves, both as graduate students and early in their professional careers. The role of the IMS membership in creating a positive work environment, providing mentoring and inviting the participation of NRs in a variety of statistical activities is emphasized. The report concludes by presenting the action items submitted to the IMS Council, and the results, to date, arising from these items.

Forensic laboratories use lengths of fragments from several locations of human DNA to decide whether a sample of body fluid left at the scene of a crime came from a suspect or whether a sample recovered from a suspect's clothing is the victim's. Using an inferential approach called "match/binning," they first decide whether there is a match between the lengths of DNA fragments from the suspect and crime samples. If there is a match, they then calculate a "match proportion." This is the proportion of a data base of DNA fragment lengths that would similarly match, that is, occur in an interval or "bin" containing the fragment length of the crime sample. Match/binning is a reasonable inferential method in a scientific setting, and in other settings that allow for flexibility, but it has several characteristics that make it undesirable for use in courts. One is that it is based on a yes/no decision: there is an arbitrary cut-off point and some fragments deemed not to match can be arbitrarily close to others that do match. Another is that the same match proportion applies for suspects whose fragment lengths just barely match the lengths of the corresponding fragments in a crime sample as for suspects whose fragment lengths match perfectly. This article describes an alternative approach, one that is not based on a yes/no match criterion. The distribution of a laboratory's measurement errors is used to infer the form of the likelihood function. Then the likelihood ratio of guilt to innocence is calculated and Bayes' theorem is applied. The focus of this approach is the contribution of the DNA evidence to the probability that a suspect is guilty. An important step is estimating the population distribution of fragment lengths, attempting to account for both laboratory measurement error and sampling variability. The two approaches are compared in an actual murder case (New York v. Castro). Applying a laboratory's match criterion literally resulted in an exclusion, but its scientists claimed a match and calculated a match proportion that was very small. Applying Bayes' theorem shows that the correct conclusion is far less clear. DNA profiling is also useful in inferring parentage, for example in cases of disputed paternity. Bayes' theorem allows for calculating the probability that an alleged father is the true father.