International Statistical Review

Simpler Probabilistic Population Forecasts: Making Scenarios Work

Joshua R. Goldstein

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Abstract

The traditional high-low-medium scenario approach to quantifying uncertainty in population forecasts has been criticized as lacking probabilistic meaning and consistency. This paper shows, under certain assumptions, how appropriately calibrated scenarios can be used to approximate the uncertainty intervals on future population size and age structure obtained with fully stochastic forecasts. As many forecasting organizations already produce scenarios and because dealing with them is familiar territory, the methods presented here offer an attractive intermediate position between probabilistically inconsistent scenario analysis and fully stochastic forecasts.

Article information

Source
Internat. Statist. Rev. Volume 72, Number 1 (2004), 93-106.

Dates
First available in Project Euclid: 15 March 2004

Permanent link to this document
http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.isr/1079360116

Zentralblatt MATH identifier
1330.91166

Keywords
Age structure Population forecasting Population size Scenarios Stochastic Uncertainty

Citation

Goldstein, Joshua R. Simpler Probabilistic Population Forecasts: Making Scenarios Work. Internat. Statist. Rev. 72 (2004), no. 1, 93--106. http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.isr/1079360116.


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References

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