On a Nonparametric Change Point Detection Model in Markovian Regimes

Abstract

Change point detection models aim to determine the most probable grouping for a given sample indexed on an ordered set. For this purpose, we propose a methodology based on exchangeable partition probability functions, specifically on Pitman’s sampling formula. Emphasis will be given to the Markovian case, in particular for discretely observed Ornstein-Uhlenbeck diffusion processes. Some properties of the resulting model are explained and posterior results are obtained via a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm.