Using Individual-Level Models for Infectious Disease Spread to Model Spatio-Temporal Combustion Dynamics

Abstract

Individual-level models (ILMs), as defined by Deardon et al. (2010), are a class of models originally designed to model the spread of infectious disease. However, they can also be considered as a tool for modelling the spatio-temporal dynamics of fire. We consider the much simplified problem of modelling the combustion dynamics on a piece of wax paper under relatively controlled conditions. The models are fitted in a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The focus here is on choosing a model that best fits the combustion pattern.