Geographically assisted elicitation of expert opinion for regression models

Abstract

One of the perceived strengths of Bayesian modelling is the ability to include prior information. Although objective or noninformative priors might be preferred in some situations, in many other applications the Bayesian framework offers a real opportunity to formally combine data with information available from experts. The question addressed in this paper is how to elicit this information in a form suitable for prior modelling. Particular attention is paid to geographic data for which maps might be used to assist in the elicitation. Two case studies are used to illustrate the methodology: estimation of city house prices and prediction of presence of a rare species.