On bandwidth choice in nonparametric regression with both short- and long-range dependent errors

Abstract

We analyse methods based on the block bootstrap and leave-out cross-validation, for choosing the bandwidth in nonparametric regression when errors have an almost arbitrarily long range of dependence. A novel analytical device for modelling the dependence structure of errors is introduced. This allows a concise theoretical description of the way in which the range of dependence affects optimal bandwidth choice. It is shown that, provided block length or leave-out number, respectively, are chosen appropriately, both techniques produce first-order optimal bandwidths. Nevertheless, the block bootstrap has far better empirical properties, particularly under long-range dependence.