The main purpose of this paper is to define and characterize random fields of bounded variation, that is, random fields with sample paths in the space of functions of bounded variation, and to study their mean total variation. Simple formulas are obtained for the mean total directional variation of random fields, based on known formulas for the directional variation of deterministic functions. It is also shown that the mean variation of random fields with stationary increments is proportional to the Lebesgue measure, and an expression of the constant of proportionality, called the variation intensity, is established. This expression shows, in particular, that the variation intensity only depends on the family of two-dimensional distributions of the stationary increment random field. When restricting to random sets, the obtained results give generalizations of well-known formulas from stochastic geometry and mathematical morphology. The interest of these general results is illustrated by computing the variation intensities of several classical stationary random field and random set models, namely Gaussian random fields and excursion sets, Poisson shot noises, Boolean models, dead leaves models, and random tessellations.

We give a criterion for unlimited growth with positive probability for a large class of multidimensional stochastic models. As a by-product, we recover the necessary and sufficient conditions for recurrence and transience for critical multitype Galton–Watson with immigration processes and also significantly improve some results on multitype size-dependent Galton–Watson processes.

We consider a time varying analogue of the Erdős–Rényi graph and study the topological variations of its associated clique complex. The dynamics of the graph are stationary and are determined by the edges, which evolve independently as continuous-time Markov chains. Our main result is that when the edge inclusion probability is of the form p=n^α, where n is the number of vertices and α∈(-1/k, -1/(k + 1)), then the process of the normalised kth Betti number of these dynamic clique complexes converges weakly to the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process as n→∞.

Comparison results are given for time-inhomogeneous Markov processes with respect to function classes with induced stochastic orderings. The main result states the comparison of two processes, provided that the comparability of their infinitesimal generators as well as an invariance property of one process is assumed. The corresponding proof is based on a representation result for the solutions of inhomogeneous evolution problems in Banach spaces, which extends previously known results from the literature. Based on this representation, an ordering result for Markov processes induced by bounded and unbounded function classes is established. We give various applications to time-inhomogeneous diffusions, to processes with independent increments, and to Lévy-driven diffusion processes.

First-passage times (FPTs) of two-dimensional Brownian motion have many applications in quantitative finance. However, despite various attempts since the 1960s, there are few analytical solutions available. By solving a nonhomogeneous modified Helmholtz equation in an infinite wedge, we find analytical solutions for the Laplace transforms of FPTs; these Laplace transforms can be inverted numerically. The FPT problems lead to a class of bivariate exponential distributions which are absolute continuous but do not have memoryless property. We also prove that the density of the absolute difference of FPTs tends to ∞ if and only if the correlation between the two Brownian motions is positive.

We study large deviation principles for a model of wireless networks consisting of Poisson point processes of transmitters and receivers. To each transmitter we associate a family of connectable receivers whose signal-to-interference-and-noise ratio is larger than a certain connectivity threshold. First, we show a large deviation principle for the empirical measure of connectable receivers associated with transmitters in large boxes. Second, making use of the observation that the receivers connectable to the origin form a Cox point process, we derive a large deviation principle for the rescaled process of these receivers as the connection threshold tends to 0. Finally, we show how these results can be used to develop importance sampling algorithms that substantially reduce the variance for the estimation of probabilities of certain rare events such as users being unable to connect.

In this paper we uniformly approximate the trajectories of the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) process. At a sequence of random times the approximate trajectories will be even exact. In between, the approximation will be uniformly close to the exact trajectory. From a conceptual point of view, the proposed method gives a better quality of approximation in a path-wise sense than standard, or even exact, simulation of the CIR dynamics at some deterministic time grid.

The subject of this paper is the problem of estimating the service time distribution of the M/G/∞ queue from incomplete data on the queue. The goal is to estimate G from observations of the queue-length process at the points of the regular grid on a fixed time interval. We propose an estimator and analyze its accuracy over a family of target service time distributions. An upper bound on the maximal risk is derived. The problem of estimating the arrival rate is considered as well.

We study an M/G/1-type queueing model with the following additional feature. The server works continuously, at fixed speed, even if there are no service requirements. In the latter case, it is building up inventory, which can be interpreted as negative workload. At random times, with an intensity ω(x) when the inventory is at level x>0, the present inventory is removed, instantaneously reducing the inventory to 0. We study the steady-state distribution of the (positive and negative) workload levels for the cases ω(x) is constant and ω(x) = ax. The key tool is the Wiener–Hopf factorization technique. When ω(x) is constant, no specific assumptions will be made on the service requirement distribution. However, in the linear case, we need some algebraic hypotheses concerning the Laplace–Stieltjes transform of the service requirement distribution. Throughout the paper, we also study a closely related model arising from insurance risk theory.

In this paper we study a stochastic differential game between two insurers whose surplus processes are modelled by quadratic-linear diffusion processes. We consider an exit probability game. One insurer controls its risk process to minimize the probability that the surplus difference reaches a low level (indicating a disadvantaged surplus position of the insurer) before reaching a high level, while the other insurer aims to maximize the probability. We solve the game by finding the value function and the Nash equilibrium strategy in explicit forms.

We describe in detail the speed of `coming down from infinity' for birth-and-death processes which eventually become extinct. Under general assumptions on the birth-and-death rates, we firstly determine the behavior of the successive hitting times of large integers. We identify two different regimes depending on whether the mean time for the process to go from n+1 to n is negligible or not compared to the mean time to reach n from ∞. In the first regime, the coming down from infinity is very fast and the convergence is weak. In the second regime, the coming down from infinity is gradual and a law of large numbers and a central limit theorem for the hitting times sequence hold. By an inversion procedure, we deduce that the process is almost surely equivalent to a nonincreasing function when the time goes to 0. Our results are illustrated by several examples including applications to population dynamics and population genetics. The particular case where the death rate varies regularly is studied in detail.

Branching processes in random environments have been widely studied and applied to population growth systems to model the spread of epidemics, infectious diseases, cancerous tumor growth, and social network traffic. However, Ebola virus, tuberculosis infections, and avian flu grow or change at rates that vary with time—at peak rates during pandemic time periods, while at low rates when near extinction. The branching processes in generalized autoregressive conditional environments we propose provide a novel approach to branching processes that allows for such time-varying random environments and instances of peak growth and near extinction-type rates. Offspring distributions we consider to illustrate the model include the generalized Poisson, binomial, and negative binomial integer-valued GARCH models. We establish conditions on the environmental process that guarantee stationarity and ergodicity of the mean offspring number and environmental processes and provide equations from which their variances, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation functions can be deduced. Furthermore, we present results on fundamental questions of importance to these processes—the survival-extinction dichotomy, growth behavior, necessary and sufficient conditions for noncertain extinction, characterization of the phase transition between the subcritical and supercritical regimes, and survival behavior in each phase and at criticality.

This paper deals with long-range dependence of random measures on ℝ^d. By examples, it is demonstrated that one must be careful in order to define it consistently. Therefore, we define long-range dependence by a rather specific second-order condition and provide an equivalent formulation involving the asymptotic behaviour of the Bartlett spectrum near the origin. Then it is shown that the defining condition may be formulated less strictly when the additional isotropy assumption holds. Finally, we present an example of a long-range dependent random measure based on the 0-level excursion set of a Gaussian random field for which the corresponding spectral density and its asymptotics are explicitly derived.

We study the asymptotic behaviour of the maximum interpoint distance of random points in a d-dimensional ellipsoid with a unique major axis. Instead of investigating only a fixed number of n points as n tends to ∞, we consider the much more general setting in which the random points are the supports of appropriately defined Poisson processes. Our main result covers the case of uniformly distributed points.