The Annals of Applied Probability

Mafia: A theoretical study of players and coalitions in a partial information environment

Mark Braverman, Omid Etesami, and Elchanan Mossel

Full-text: Open access

Abstract

In this paper, we study a game called “Mafia,” in which different players have different types of information, communication and functionality. The players communicate and function in a way that resembles some real-life situations. We consider two types of operations. First, there are operations that follow an open democratic discussion. Second, some subgroups of players who may have different interests make decisions based on their own group interest. A key ingredient here is that the identity of each subgroup is known only to the members of that group.

In this paper, we are interested in the best strategies for the different groups in such scenarios and in evaluating their relative power. The main focus of the paper is the question: How large and strong should a subgroup be in order to dominate the game?

The concrete model studied here is based on the popular game “Mafia.” In this game, there are three groups of players: Mafia, detectives and ordinary citizens. Initially, each player is given only his/her own identity, except the mafia, who are given the identities of all mafia members. At each “open” round, a vote is made to determine which player to eliminate. Additionally, there are collective decisions made by the mafia where they decide to eliminate a citizen. Finally, each detective accumulates data on the mafia/citizen status of players. The citizens win if they eliminate all mafia members. Otherwise, the mafia wins.

We first find a randomized strategy that is optimal in the absence of detectives. This leads to a stochastic asymptotic analysis where it is shown that the two groups have comparable probabilities of winning exactly when the total population size is R and the mafia size is of order $\sqrt{R}$.

We then show that even a single detective changes the qualitative behavior of the game dramatically. Here, the mafia and citizens have comparable winning probabilities only for a mafia size linear in R. Finally, we provide a summary of simulations complementing the theoretical results obtained in the paper.

Article information

Source
Ann. Appl. Probab. Volume 18, Number 3 (2008), 825-846.

Dates
First available in Project Euclid: 26 May 2008

Permanent link to this document
http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoap/1211819786

Digital Object Identifier
doi:10.1214/07-AAP456

Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet)
MR2418230

Zentralblatt MATH identifier
1142.91335

Subjects
Primary: 91A18: Games in extensive form 91A28: Signaling, communication 60J20: Applications of Markov chains and discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces (social mobility, learning theory, industrial processes, etc.) [See also 90B30, 91D10, 91D35, 91E40]

Keywords
Mafia extensive game optimal strategy martingale

Citation

Braverman, Mark; Etesami, Omid; Mossel, Elchanan. Mafia: A theoretical study of players and coalitions in a partial information environment. Ann. Appl. Probab. 18 (2008), no. 3, 825--846. doi:10.1214/07-AAP456. http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoap/1211819786.


Export citation

References

  • [1] Boneh, D. and Golle, P. (2002). Almost entirely correct mixing with applications to voting. In Conference on Computer and Communications Security Archive. Proceedings of the 9th ACM Conference on Computer and Communications Security 68–77. ACM, New York.
  • [2] Durrett, R. (2004). Probability: Theory and Examples, 3rd ed. Duxbury Press, Belmont, CA.
  • [3] Hart, S. and Aumann, R. J., eds. (1992, 1994, 2002). Handbook of Game Theory, with Economic Applications. North-Holland, Amsterdam.
  • [4] Rubinstein, A. (1998). Modeling Bounded Rationality. MIT Press.
  • [5] Naor, M. (1991). Bit commitment using pseudorandomness. J. Cryptology 4 151–158.
  • [6] Peled, D. (2001). Software Reliability Methods. Springer, Berlin.
  • [7] Tel, G. (2000). Introduction to Distributed Algorithms, 2nd ed. Cambridge Univ. Press.