Statistical Science

Bayesian Thought in Early Modern Detective Stories: Monsieur Lecoq, C. Auguste Dupin and Sherlock Holmes

Joseph B. Kadane
Source: Statist. Sci. Volume 24, Number 2 (2009), 238-243.

Abstract

This paper reviews the maxims used by three early modern fictional detectives: Monsieur Lecoq, C. Auguste Dupin and Sherlock Holmes. It find similarities between these maxims and Bayesian thought. Poe’s Dupin uses ideas very similar to Bayesian game theory. Sherlock Holmes’ statements also show thought patterns justifiable in Bayesian terms.

First Page: Show Hide
Full-text: Access denied (no subscription detected)
We're sorry, but we are unable to provide you with the full text of this article because we are not able to identify you as a subscriber.
If you have a personal subscription to this journal, then please login. If you are already logged in, then you may need to update your profile to register your subscription. Read more about accessing full-text
Links and Identifiers

Permanent link to this document: http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1263478384
Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.1214/09-STS298
Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet): MR2655852

References

Bleiler, E. (1975). Introduction to the Dover Edition of Gaboriau’s Monsiur Lecoq. Dover, New York.
de Finetti, B. (1970, 1975). Theory of Probability. Wiley, Chichester. (Translated by A. Machi and A. F. M. Smith.)
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR440641
Zentralblatt MATH: 0328.60003
DeGroot, M. (1970). Optimal Statistical Decision. McGraw Hill, New York.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR356303
Doyle, A. C. (1924). Memories and Adventures. Little Brown & Co., Boston.
Doyle, A. C. (1981). The Penquin Complete Sherlock Holmes. Viking Penguin, New York.
Gaboriau, E. (1975). Monsieur Lecoq. Dover Publications, New York.
Kadane, J. and Larkey, P. (1982). Subjective probability and the theory of games. Management Sci. 28 113–120.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR652016
Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.1287/mnsc.28.2.113
Larkey, P., Kadane, J., Austin, R. and Zamir, S. (1997). Skill in games. Management Sci. 43 596–609.
Lindley, D. (1985). Making Decisions. Wiley, Chichester.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR892099
National Research Council (2003). The polygraph and lie detection. National Academies Press, Washington, DC.
National Research Council (2009). Strengthening forensic science in the United States: A Path Forward. National Academies Press, Washington, DC.
Poe, E. (1944). Tales of Edgar Allan Poe. Random House, New York.
Ramsey, F. (1926). Truth and probability. In Studies in Subjective Probability (H. E. Kyburg and H. E. Smokler, eds.) RE Kreiger Publishing (Reprinted). Huntington, NY.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR584256
Savage, L. (1954). The Foundations of Statistics. Wiley, New York.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR63582

2012 © Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Statistical Science

Statistical Science