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Estimates of Dynamic VaR and Mean Loss Associated to Diffusion Processes

Laurent Denis, Begoña Fernández, Ana Meda

Abstract

Let Xt be a stochastic process driven by a differential equation of the form dXt=σ(t,Xt)dWt+b(t,Xt)dt, t>0, and let Xs,t=supsutXu, be the maximum of the diffusion. In this work we obtain bounds for the tail distribution of X*s,t, define several dynamic VaR type quantiles for this process and give upper and lower bounds for both, the VaR quantile and the conditioned mean loss associated to it. The results we obtain are based in the change of time property of the Brownian Motion, and can be applied to a a large class of examples used in Finance, in particular where σ(t,Xt)=σtXγt , where 0γ<1. The estimates we obtain are sharp. We discuss carefully the Geometric Brownian Motion, the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross and the Vasicek type models, and give an application to Russian options.

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Permanent link to this document: http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.imsc/1233152949 Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.1214/074921708000000444

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Institute of Mathematical Statistics Collections

Institute of Mathematical Statistics Collections