Institute of Mathematical Statistics Collections

Objective Bayes testing of Poisson versus inflated Poisson models

M. J. Bayarri, James O. Berger, Gauri S. Datta

Abstract

The Poisson distribution is often used as a standard model for count data. Quite often, however, such data sets are not well fit by a Poisson model because they have more zeros than are compatible with this model. For these situations, a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) distribution is often proposed. This article addresses testing a Poisson versus a ZIP model, using Bayesian methodology based on suitable objective priors. Specific choices of objective priors are justified and their properties investigated. The methodology is extended to include covariates in regression models. Several applications are given.

First Page: Show Hide
Primary Subjects: 62F15, 62F03
Keywords: Bayes factor; Jeffreys prior; model selection
Full-text: Open access
Links and Identifiers

Permanent link to this document: http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.imsc/1209398464
Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.1214/074921708000000093

References

[1] Bayarri, M. J., Berger, J. O. and Datta, G. S. (2007). Objective Bayes testing of Poisson versus inflated Poisson models. Technical report, Dept. Statistics, Univ. Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA.
[2] Bayarri, M. J. and García-Donato, G. (2007). Extending conventional priors for testing general hypotheses in linear models. Biometrika 94 135–152.
[3] Berger, J. (1985). Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis, 2nd ed. Springer, New York.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR804611
Zentralblatt MATH: 0572.62008
[4] Berger, J. (2006). The case for objective Bayesian analysis. Bayesian Analysis 1 385–402.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR2221271
Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.1214/06-BA115
[5] Berger, J. O. and Pericchi, L. R. (1996). The intrinsic Bayes factor for model selection and prediction. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 91 109–122.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR1394065
Zentralblatt MATH: 0870.62021
Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.2307/2291387
[6] Berger, J. O. and Pericchi, L. R. (2001). Objective Bayesian methods for model selection: introduction and comparison (with discussion). In Model Selection. IMS Lecture Notes – Monograph Series 38 (P. Lahiri, ed.) 135–207. IMS, Beachwood, OH.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR2000753
Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.1214/lnms/1215540968
[7] Berger, J., Pericchi, L. and Varshavsky, J. (1998). Bayes factors and marginal distributions in invariant situations. Sankhyā A 60 307–321.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR1718789
[8] Berger, J. and Sun, D. (2008). Objective priors for a bivariate normal model with multivariate generalizations. Ann. Statist. To appear.
[9] Bhattacharya, A., Clarke, B. S. and Datta, G. S. (2007). A Bayesian test for excess zeros in a zero-inflated power series distribution. In Beyond Parametrics in Interdisciplinary Research: Festschrift in Honour of Professor Pranab K. Sen. IMS Lecture Notes and Monographs Series 1 (N. Balakrishnan, E. Peña and M. Silvapulle, eds.) 89–104. IMS, Beachwood, OH.
[10] Broek, J. V. D. (1995). A score test for zero inflation on a Poisson distribution. Biometrics 51 738–743.
[11] Conigliani, C., Castro, J. I. and O’Hagan, A. (2000). Bayesian assessment of goodness of fit against nonparametric alternatives. Canad. J. Statist. 28 327–342.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR1792053
Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.2307/3315982
[12] Deng, D. and Paul, S. R. (2000). Score test for zero inflation in generalized linear models. Canad. J. Statist. 28 563–570.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR1793111
Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.2307/3315965
[13] Ghosh, J. K. and Samanta, T. (2002). Nonsubjective Bayes testing – an overview. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 103 205–223.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR1896993
Zentralblatt MATH: 0989.62017
Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.1016/S0378-3758(01)00222-1
[14] Ghosh, S. K., Mukhopadhyay, P. and Lu, J. C. (2006). Bayesian analysis of zero-inflated regression models. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 136 1360–1375.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR2253768
Zentralblatt MATH: 1088.62139
Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.1016/j.jspi.2004.10.008
[15] Jeffreys, H. (1961). Theory of Probability, 3rd ed. Oxford Univ. Press.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR187257
[16] Kass, R. E. and Vaidyanathan, S. (1992). Approximate Bayes factors and orthogonal parameters, with application to testing equality of two binomial proportions. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 54 129–144.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR1157716
[17] Kass, R. E. and Wasserman, L. (1996). The selection of prior distributions by formal rules. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 91 1343–1370.
[18] Lambert, D. (1992). Zero-inflated Poisson regression, with an application to defects in manufacturing. Technometrics 34 1–14.
[19] Noble, B. (1969). Applied Linear Algebra. Prentice-Hall, New York.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR246884
[20] O’Hagan, A. (1995). Fractional Bayes factors for model comparisons. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 57 99–138.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR1325379
[21] Pérez, J. M. and Berger, J. (2001). Analysis of mixture models using expected posterior priors, with application to classification of gamma ray bursts. In Bayesian Methods, with Applications to Science, Policy and Official Statistics (E. George and P. Nanopoulos, eds.) 401–410. Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg.

2012 © Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Institute of Mathematical Statistics Collections

Institute of Mathematical Statistics Collections