This paper studies the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) of non-stationary GARCH(p,q) models. By expressing GARCH models in matrix form, the log-likelihood function is written in terms of the product of random matrices. Oseledec’s multiplicative ergodic theorem is then used to establish the asymptotic properties of the log-likelihood function and thereby, showing the weak consistency and the asymptotic normality of the QMLE for non-stationary GARCH(p,q) models.
References
[1] Arnold, L., Crauel, H. and Eckmann, J.P. (1991). Lyapunov exponents: Proceedings of a conference held in Oberwolfach, May 28-June 2, 1990. Lecture Notes in Mathematics 1486. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
[2] Berkes, L. and Horváth, L. (2004). The efficiency of the estimators of the parameters in GARCH processes. Annals of Statistics 32, 633–655.
[3] Berkes, L., Horváth, L. and Kokoszka, P. (2003). GARCH processes: structure and estimation. Bernoulli 9, 201–228.
[4] Bougerol, P. and Picard, N. (1992). Stationarity of GARCH processes and of some nonnegative time series. Journal of Econometrics 52, 115–127.
[5] Cohen, J.E., Kesten, H. and Newman, C.M. (1986a). Random Matrices and Their Applications. American Mathematical Society, Rhode Island.
[6] Cohen, J.E., Kesten, H. and Newman, C.M. (1986b). Oseledec’s multiplicative ergodic theorem: a proof, in Random matrices and their applications, edited by Cohen, J.E., Kesten, H. and Newman, C.M., American Mathematical Society, 23–30.
[7] Jensen, S.T. and Rahbek, A. (2004a). Asymptotic inference for nonstationary GARCH. Econometric Theory 20, 1203–1226.
[8] Jensen, S. and Rahbek, A. (2004b). Asymptotic normality of the QMLE estimator of ARCH in the nonstationary case. Econometrica 72, 641–646.
[9] Krengal, U. (1985). Ergodic Theorems. W. de Gruyter, New York.
[10] Ledrappier, F. (1984). Quelques proprietes des exposants caracteristiques, in Ecole d’ete de probabilites de Saint-Flour XII - 1982, edited by Hennequin, P.L., Springer, Berlin, 305–396.
[11] LeJan, Y. (1991). A second order extension of Oseledets theorem, in Lyapunov exponents: proceedings of a conference held in Oberwolfach, May 28-June 2, 1990. Lecture Notes in Mathematics 1486, Arnold, L., Crauel, H. and Eckmann, J.P. (eds.), 81–85. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
[12] Pollard, D. (1984). Convergence of Stochastic Processes. Springer, New York.
[13] Robinson, P.M. and Zaffaroni, P. (2006). Pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation of ARCH(∞) models. Annals of Statistics 34, 1049–1074.
[14] Rudin, W. (1987). Real and Complex Analysis, 3rd Ed. McGraw-Hill, New York.
[15] Straumann, D. (2005). Estimation in Conditionally Heteroscedastic Time Series Models. Springer, New York.