Bernoulli

Toward optimal multistep forecasts in non-stationary autoregressions

Ching-Kang Ing, Jin-Lung Lin, and Shu-Hui Yu

Source: Bernoulli Volume 15, Number 2 (2009), 402-437.

Abstract

This paper investigates multistep prediction errors for non-stationary autoregressive processes with both model order and true parameters unknown. We give asymptotic expressions for the multistep mean squared prediction errors and accumulated prediction errors of two important methods, plug-in and direct prediction. These expressions not only characterize how the prediction errors are influenced by the model orders, prediction methods, values of parameters and unit roots, but also inspire us to construct some new predictor selection criteria that can ultimately choose the best combination of the model order and prediction method with probability 1. Finally, simulation analysis confirms the satisfactory finite sample performance of the newly proposed criteria.

Keywords: accumulated prediction error; direct prediction; mean squared prediction error; model selection; plug-in method

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Links and Identifiers

Permanent link to this document: http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bj/1241444896
Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.3150/08-BEJ165
Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet): MR2543868

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