Source: Bayesian Anal.
Volume 3, Number 1
R.G. Cowell, A.P. David, S.L. Lauritzen, and D.J. Spiegelhalter, 1999. Probabilistic Networks and Expert Systems. New York: Springer.
P.S. Craig, M. Goldstein, J.C. Rougier, and A.H. Seheult, 2001. Bayesian forecasting for complex systems using computer simulators. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 96, \penalty0 717–729.
P.S. Craig, M. Goldstein, A.H. Seheult, and J.A. Smith, 1997. Pressure matching for hydrocarbon reservoirs: A case study in the use of Bayes linear strategies for large computer experiments. In C. Gatsonis, J.S. Hodges, R.E. Kass, R. McCulloch, P. Rossi, and N.D. Singpurwalla, editors, Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics III, pages 37–87. New York: Springer-Verlag. With discussion.
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Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR763811
T.L. Edwards, M. Crucifix, and S.P. Harrison, 2007. Using the past to contrain the future: How the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming. Progress in Physical Geography, 31\penalty0 (5), \penalty0 481–500.
D.J. Frame, N.E. Faull, M.M. Joshi, and M.R. Allen, 2007. Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Series A, 365, \penalty0 1971–1992.
M. Goldstein, 1981. Revising previsions: A geometric interpretation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 43, \penalty0 105–130. with discussion.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR626756
M. Goldstein and J.C. Rougier, 2004. Probabilistic formulations for transferring inferences from mathematical models to physical systems. SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, 26\penalty0 (2), \penalty0 467–487.
M. Goldstein and J.C. Rougier, 2006. Bayes linear calibrated prediction for complex systems. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 101, \penalty0 1132–1143.
M. Goldstein and J.C. Rougier, 2007. Reified Bayesian modelling and inference for physical systems. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference. Forthcoming as a discussion paper, currently available at http://www.maths.dur.ac.uk/stats/people/jcr/Reify.pdf.
M. Goldstein and D.A. Wooff, 2007. Bayes Linear Statistics: Theory & Methods. Chichester, England: John Wiley & Sons.
J. Haslett, M. Whiley, S. Bhattacharya, M. Salter-Townshend, S.P. Wilson, J.R.M. Allen, B. Huntley, and F.J.G. Mitchell, 2006. Bayesian palaeoclimate reconstruction. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 169\penalty0 (3), \penalty0 395–438.
J.M. Murphy, B.B.B. Booth, M. Collins, G.R. Harris, D.M.H. Sexton, and M.J. Webb, 2007. A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Series A, 365, \penalty0 1993–2028.
J.M. Murphy, D.M.H. Sexton, D.N. Barnett, G.S. Jones, M.J. Webb, M. Collins, and D.A. Stainforth, 2004. Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature, 430, \penalty0 768–772.
A. O'Hagan, 2006. Bayesian analysis of computer code outputs: A tutorial. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 91, \penalty0 1290–1300.
J. Pearl, 2000. Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. Cambridge University Press.
J.C. Rougier, 2006. Comment on the paper by Haslett et al. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 169\penalty0 (3), \penalty0 432–433.
J.C. Rougier, 2007. Efficient emulators for multivariate deterministic functions. In submission, currently available at http://www.maths.bris.ac.uk/~mazjcr/OPemulator.pdf.
J.C. Rougier, 2007. Probabilistic inference for future climate using an ensemble of climate model evaluations. Climatic Change, 81, \penalty0 247–264.
J.C. Rougier, S. Guillas, A. Maute, and A. Richmond, 2007. Emulating the Thermosphere-Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM). In submission, currently available at http://www.maths.bris.ac.uk/~mazjcr/EmulateTIEGCM.pdf.
B. Sansó, C. Forest, and D. Zantedeschi, 2008. Inferring climate system properties using a computer model. Bayesian Analysis, 3, \penalty0 1–38.