The Annals of Probability

Finitely additive beliefs and universal type spaces

Martin Meier
Source: Ann. Probab. Volume 34, Number 1 (2006), 386-422.

Abstract

The probabilistic type spaces in the sense of Harsanyi [Management Sci. 14 (1967/68) 159–182, 320–334, 486–502] are the prevalent models used to describe interactive uncertainty. In this paper we examine the existence of a universal type space when beliefs are described by finitely additive probability measures. We find that in the category of all type spaces that satisfy certain measurability conditions (κ-measurability, for some fixed regular cardinal κ), there is a universal type space (i.e., a terminal object) to which every type space can be mapped in a unique beliefs-preserving way. However, by a probabilistic adaption of the elegant sober-drunk example of Heifetz and Samet [Games Econom. Behav. 22 (1998) 260–273] we show that if all subsets of the spaces are required to be measurable, then there is no universal type space.

First Page: Show Hide
Primary Subjects: 91A40, 91A35, 28E
Full-text: Open access
Links and Identifiers

Permanent link to this document: http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aop/1140191541
Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.1214/009117905000000576
Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet): MR2206351
Zentralblatt MATH identifier: 05031268

References

Aumann, R. J. and Brandenburger, A. (1995). Epistemic conditions for Nash equilibrium. Econometrica 63 1161--1180.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR1348517
Battigalli, P. and Siniscalchi, M. (1999). Interactive beliefs and forward induction. Working Paper ECO 99/15, European Univ. Institute.
Brandenburger, A. and Dekel, E. (1993). Hierarchies of beliefs and common knowledge. J. Econom. Theory 59 189--198.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR1211557
Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.1006/jeth.1993.1012
Zentralblatt MATH: 0773.90109
Devlin, K. (1993). The Joy of Sets, 2nd ed. Springer, New York.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR1237397
Zentralblatt MATH: 0792.04001
Harsanyi, J. C. (1967/68). Games with incomplete information played by Bayesian players, I--III. Management Sci. 14 159--182, 320--334, 486--502.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR246649
Heifetz, A. (1993). The Bayesian formulation of incomplete information---the noncompact case. Internat. J. Game Theory 21 329--338.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR1222760
Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.1007/BF01240148
Heifetz, A. (2002). Limitations of the syntactic approach. In Handbook of Game Theory 3 (R. J. Aumann and S. Hart, eds.) 1682--1684. North-Holland, Amsterdam.
Heifetz, A. and Mongin, P. (2001). Probability logic for type spaces. Games Econom. Behav. 35 31--53.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR1822464
Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.1006/game.1999.0788
Zentralblatt MATH: 0978.03017
Heifetz, A. and Samet, D. (1998). Knowledge spaces with arbitrarily high rank. Games Econom. Behav. 22 260--273.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR1610077
Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.1006/game.1997.0591
Zentralblatt MATH: 0895.90201
Heifetz, A. and Samet, D. (1998). Topology-free typology of beliefs. J. Econom. Theory 82 324--341.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR1662246
Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.1006/jeth.1998.2435
Zentralblatt MATH: 0921.90156
Horn, A. and Tarski, A. (1948). Measures in Boolean algebras. Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. 64 467--497.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR28922
Łoś, J. and Marczewski, E. (1949). Extensions of measure. Fund. Math. 36 267--276.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR35327
Mertens, J. F., Sorin, S. and Zamir, S. (1994). Repeated games. Part A. Background material. CORE Discussion Paper 9420, Univ. Catholique de Louvain.
Mertens, J. F. and Zamir, S. (1985). Formulation of Bayesian analysis for games with incomplete information. Internat. J. Game Theory 14 1--29.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR784702
Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.1007/BF01770224
Zentralblatt MATH: 0567.90103
Savage, L. J. (1954, 1972). The Foundations of Statistics. New York, Wiley. [Second edition (1972) Dover, New York.]
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR348870
Zentralblatt MATH: 0276.62006
Stalnaker, R. (1998). Belief revision in games: Forward and backward induction. Math. Social. Sci. 36 31--56.
Mathematical Reviews (MathSciNet): MR1636254
Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.1016/S0165-4896(98)00007-9
Zentralblatt MATH: 0963.91016

2012 © Institute of Mathematical Statistics

The Annals of Probability

The Annals of Probability